This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some decent contests for us for this particular Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k belongs to 1st place, also there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for this final contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 50 or so entries at the $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of play into cash games. With that said, let us get into some plays I like as well as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the background, in my opinion. I think he will be the fighter anywhere this battle moves, and he should dominate. I like locking that triumph in my money match and I think he has a fantastic shot at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I do expect him to become popular in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the possession there and try to be contrarian, I’d definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is demanding so that he could last all 3 rounds and when he does then Luque could score from the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. However, we can work with an ~80-point triumph in cash games since we just need to conquer half the field unlike those tournaments.
GPP play of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week because of the chances. A little more than a week ago he had been a -255 favorite and that’s what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the value is on Ngannou in his 7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou are the greatest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he’ll kill off near half the area. Also, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his ownership to go down the longer his betting line reduces and that is what makes him a great GPP play. He does have a 0-point floor, so that I don’t care for him as much in cash game, but for GPPs we want boom or bust to attempt and get to this 1st place prize.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He is $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he’s just a +125 underdog. I think he has a fantastic shot of winning this fight and I am choosing him to get his hand raised. I anticipate this to be an extremely close fight, but I believe Fili will be the fighter striking at the greater pace and that is precisely what I believe gets it done for him to the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside down but we do not really need that at his $7.4k price tag. I believe he’s a good shot at getting at 10x, so he is playable in most formats for me personally.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of the week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have a hard time seeing her on the 20k lineup in her wages. I enjoy the 9k range much greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings using their grappling-based match plans. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but this is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing that in this game because I think Evans-Smith has the edge on the floor and she must be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this battle, then she’s going to have to get it done on the toes and I really don’t see her having a high ceiling without a finish. The sole reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low owned, and it’ll make your lineup contrarian, but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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